If you could go back to 2016, what would you invest in?

Imagine you had a time machine. You go back to 2016 with one mission: invest S$10,000 in the best possible way.

What would you invest in?

With perfect hindsight, Bitcoin was the standout answer. Based on simplified annual return assumptions, S$10,000 invested in Bitcoin in 2016 could have grown to more than S$2 million by end-2025.

But most investors (we presume) do not have a time machine to go back to the past nor have perfect foresight to pick the winners ten years from now. Furthermore, our investment decisions cannot also be shaped by our salaries, bills, housing plans, family responsibilities, health risks and emotions at any given moment.

So, if we were to take away any investment lessons from ten years ago, it should be this: own long-term growth assets, diversify, keep enough liquidity, and protect the plan so that life does not force you to sell at the wrong time.

What would S$10,000 invested in 2016 be worth today?

• From 2016 to end-2025, Bitcoin delivered huge annual gains in several years, including 1,368.90% in 2017 and 303.16% in 2020. But it also had severe down years, including -73.56% in 2018 and -64.27% in 2022.
• The S&P 500 also rewarded patient investors. It delivered positive total returns in most years from 2016 to 2025, including strong years in 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. But it also fell in 2018 and 2022.
• Global equities, represented by the MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index), compounded meaningfully across the decade, although they also declined in 2018 and 2022.
• Singapore equities had a role too. The Straits Times Index reported positive calendar-year returns in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, with particularly strong returns in 2024 and 2025.
• Gold also performed strongly, especially during the last two years. SPDR Gold Shares reported annual total returns of 26.66% in 2024 and 63.68% in 2025.

This scoreboard is useful because it shows the gap between assets. But it is incomplete.

It tells you what won. However, it does not tell you whether you could have stayed invested long enough to benefit.

The real test was not picking the winner. It was holding it.

It is easy to say you would have bought Bitcoin in 2016 when you already know the ending.

But it is harder to say you would hold on to it for the long-term, when you are unaware of the future and see the value of your investment fall by more than 70% in a single month.

The problem with hindsight is it turns a frightening journey into a clean chart.

From 2016 to 2026, you would have had to live through market crashes, Covid-19, inflation, rising interest rates, recession fears, job uncertainty and personal obligations. You might also have needed cash for a home, a child, a medical bill, an ageing parent or a period without income.

Some investors may be able to hold volatile assets through large drawdowns. But many cannot.

That is why the better question is not simply, “What made the most money?”

It is: “What could you realistically have bought, held and lived with?”

Because the best investment on paper is not always the best plan in real life. A high-return asset can still be the wrong fit if:

• you need the money soon
• you cannot tolerate large losses
• you have no emergency fund
• your income is unstable
• you are investing money meant for housing, education or healthcare
• you are likely to sell when markets fall

The danger is pretending your risk tolerance is higher than it really is.

Without a time machine, the better answer was boring on purpose

If you had a time machine, you would pick the winner. But without perfect hindsight, the more repeatable answer is simpler: own productive assets, diversify and give compounding time.

A globally diversified equity portfolio would not have beaten Bitcoin. It would not have produced the most dramatic story. But it would have given investors exposure to thousands of companies across countries and sectors.

That matters because the future is rarely obvious at the start.

In 2016, few investors could have predicted the exact path of cloud computing, digital platforms, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, healthcare innovation, inflation or interest rates. Broad equity investing allowed investors to participate in some of those long-term trends without needing to identify every winner in advance.

That is the practical lesson.

You do not need to predict the next decade perfectly. You need a plan that gives compounding enough time to work.

A time machine does not need insurance. You do.

Every 10-year investment chart hides one important assumption: It assumes nothing forces you to sell.

Real life is not that neat.

• A serious illness can interrupt income.
• A hospital bill can drain savings.
• A critical illness can require time away from work.
• A disability can reduce earning power.
• The death of an income earner can affect a family’s mortgage, children’s education plans and everyday expenses.

In those moments, the question is no longer only, “Which asset had the highest return?” It becomes, “What could have stopped this investor from staying invested?”

This is where insurance belongs in the investment conversation.

Insurance is not there to beat the S&P 500, Bitcoin or gold. It plays a different role. It helps protect the household from risks that may be too large to comfortably absorb alone.

The goal is not to replace investing. The goal is to reduce the chance that illness, disability, medical expenses or loss of income forces you to sell long-term investments at the wrong time.

For example, an investor who started in 2016 but faced a major health event in 2020 might not have been able to wait for markets to recover. A strong long-term portfolio would matter less if the investor had to sell during a difficult period to pay urgent expenses.

A better financial plan separates the jobs.

• Cash helps with emergencies and near-term needs.
• Insurance helps protect against large life risks.
• CPF helps form a retirement and healthcare foundation.
• Diversified investments help grow long-term wealth.

Higher-risk assets, if used, should be kept to a size that the investor can survive emotionally and financially.

The point is not that every investor needs the same products. The point is that every major risk should have a clear answer.

Some risks can be self-funded. Some can be reduced. Some may need to be transferred through insurance.

A useful financial review should not begin with a product. It should begin with a sharper question: “What could force this plan to fail?”

That is also where speaking with a financial representative can be useful. Not because every gap needs a policy, but because many people do not see the gap until a claim, bill or income shock makes it visible.

Insurance can also play another role in a broader financial plan: structure.

For investors who want to build wealth with more discipline, certain insurance-related wealth accumulation plans can help turn long-term savings into more structured commitments.

For those closer to retirement, retirement income policies can also help convert part of a person’s accumulated savings into a more regular income stream.

So, what would you invest in 2016?

If the question is “which asset made the most money?”, the answer is Bitcoin.

But if the question is “what was the best financial planning decision?”, the answer is broader:

Start early. Stay invested. Diversify. Keep enough cash for near-term needs. Use CPF as a foundation. Protect the plan with appropriate insurance. Take higher risk only where you have time, capacity and conviction.

That would not have produced the highest possible return from 2016 to 2025.

But it may have produced something more valuable: a plan you could actually hold through the decade.

The next winner will look obvious later too

In 2036, the winning investment of the next decade may look obvious.

People may say everyone should have bought a certain stock, fund, country, theme or cryptocurrency. They may say the signs were there.

But the signs are always clearer after the outcome is known.

Without a time machine, the better approach is not to chase the perfect answer. It is to build a plan with different parts doing different jobs.

• Cash for flexibility.
• CPF for foundation.
• Insurance for protection.
• Diversified investments for long-term growth.
• Singapore assets where local exposure or income is useful.
• Higher-risk assets only where the downside is survivable.

The lesson from 2016 is not that everyone should have bought the same thing. It is that returns only matter if you can stay in the game long enough to receive them.

A time machine can show you the winner. A good financial plan helps you survive the journey.

Frequently asked questions

What would S$10,000 invested in Bitcoin in 2016 be worth by 2025?

Using simplified annual return assumptions from 2016 to 2025, S$10,000 invested in Bitcoin could have grown to more than S$2 million by end-2025, before fees, spreads, taxes, custody risks and currency effects. This figure is for illustration only and is not a recommendation to buy cryptocurrency.

Would the S&P 500 have been a good investment in 2016?

Yes, for investors who could stay invested for the long term. The S&P 500 delivered positive total returns in most years from 2016 to 2025, though it also fell in 2018 and 2022.

Would global equities have worked well from 2016 to 2025?

Yes. MSCI ACWI, a broad global equity index, delivered positive annual returns in most years from 2016 to 2025, though it also declined in 2018 and 2022.

Should Singapore investors only invest in Singapore stocks?

Not necessarily. Singapore stocks can provide local exposure and dividends, but a Singapore-only portfolio may miss global sectors and companies that are not well represented in the local market.

Is CPF enough for retirement investing?

CPF is an important foundation, but it may not be enough on its own for every retirement goal. CPF can provide stability, housing support, healthcare support and retirement income, but many investors may also need other assets for growth, flexibility and income planning.

Where does insurance fit into investing?

Insurance does not replace investing. It protects the plan around investing. Appropriate coverage can reduce the chance that illness, disability, medical expenses or loss of income forces a household to sell long-term investments at the wrong time.

What is the biggest investment lesson from 2016?

The biggest lesson is that returns, behaviour and protection cannot be separated. The best asset on paper may not help if you cannot hold it through volatility or if life forces you to sell before the plan has time to work.

Written by: Great Eastern Lifepedia team